EV sales are growing at a faster pace than expected both locally and internationally.
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are continuing to grow at a faster pace than anticipated, surpassing even the expectations of industry analysts. This unexpected growth has outpaced the forecasts of major oil companies. According to Bloomberg NEF’s latest Zero-Emission Vehicles Factbook.
The data from Bloomberg NEF, the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, BP, and ExxonMobil highlights the significant growth of EV sales. The IEA’s base-case scenario predicts a considerable increase in EV sales by 2022, while BNEF and OPEC include BEVs (battery-electric vehicles) and exclude PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) and FCVs (fuel-cell vehicles) in their scenarios. On the other hand, Exxon and OPEC include all three types of vehicles.
BNEF’s forecasts have been seen as conservative by some, including OPEC, BP, and Exxon, while others have been more optimistic. However, BNEF has consistently revised its forecasts upwards, with ambitious forecasts proving to be accurate. The long-term outlook for EV adoption is increasingly positive, with a 26% increase in the estimated size of the BEV fleet by 2030 compared to last year’s forecast. This upward revision is primarily attributed to increased policy support and growing consumer interest. In BNEF’s base-case Economic Transition Scenario for 2023, the global share of ZEVs (zero-emission vehicles) in passenger vehicle sales is projected to reach 75% by 2040, reflecting additional policy support introduced in recent years. The IEA’s Global EV Outlook for 2023 estimates a 36% share of BEVs in passenger vehicle sales by 2030, double the estimate from their 2022 report, bringing it closer to BNEF’s outlook.
Not all countries are on equal footing when it comes to EV adoption. China has been leading the way, with several European countries close behind. The US, Canada, Australia, other European countries, and Asian countries are still lagging behind. BNEF notes that EV adoption accounts for only 10% of sales in half of the global car market, including countries like the US and Japan. However, over 30% of the global car market consists of countries with EV adoption rates still below 5%, such as India, Southeast Asia, and Japan. India crossed the 1% mark for EV adoption in 2022 and reached 2% by the first half of 2023, but low-priced vehicles, limited EV model availability, underdeveloped charging infrastructure, unreliable grids, and lack of policy support are holding back further progress in these countries.
BNEF also highlights that BEVs are outperforming plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) globally. The global fleet of passenger electric and fuel-cell vehicles has quadrupled since 2020, with a cumulative total of around 41 million EVs sold by the end of 2023 (compared to 10 million by the end of 2020). However, BEVs excluding PHEVs have seen even more significant growth, quadrupling in size since 2020 and reaching a cumulative all-time sales figure of around 29 million by 2023 (compared to 6.8 million by the end of 2020). Despite Europe’s higher share of PHEVs, China remains the second-largest ZEV market globally.
Looking ahead to 2024, the growth in EV sales is expected to continue. The EV market has been driven by China and Europe, but there is still room for improvement in other regions. As more countries prioritize EV adoption and address the challenges associated with it, such as infrastructure development and policy support, the future looks promising for the global transition to electric mobility.